Blogs I read.

Blogs are a wonderful source of information. Here are the blogs I read on a daily basis, in a particular order:

BlogMaverick

Scoble

Official Google

Unoffical Microsoft

Unofficial Google

Engadget

TV

There are a few others I go to, but not so often that it is in my daily routine. There are MANY I wish existed, such as the following:

Miley, Bill Gates, official Microsoft, CEOs of companies I follow being candid and not political (e.g. like Scobles or Cuban's), and of course Shakira.

Are there any I SHOULD be reading? Do you know of any CEOs blogs that have no spin to them?...what blogs do you routinely read?

Have a great 2006 everyone! Take advantage of the information at your fingertips. Change the game.

Be Independant....everything else is Dependant (on selfish idiots).

I stare at the ceiling, wheeling and dealing,
I'm awake, but I'm dreaming.
Of my generation overcoming the forced penetration of our nation.
I'm drowning in delusions of revolutions, and solutions, and evolutions.

We're an insecure bully, hollow inside.
We have freedom of speech, without freedom of change.
We elect idiots.
We impose our will on other countries, so we can take their oil. I am not talking about the Middle East.
Our Judicial system is a joke.
Our constitution is outdated.
The Peace Corps are used to be a friendly face in the places we rape.
Politicians are liars.
More people get shot to death in the US by us, than they do in wars. It is clearly a passive civil war, that can not end because the NRA owns politicians.
My taxes are never used what I want them to be used for. Nor are yours.
We fight Iraq, and ignore Katrina. Why?
We think we are rich, but the average American has 8k in credit card debt, and the government has several trillion in increasing debt. Think about that. Think about who is rich. The government's debt is in the form of Treasury and Savings Bonds and Bills. Who owns those bonds? Foreign Countries. We are borrowing money from other countries. Other countries have the money. We have things. The lenders are making money off their money (interest) as we use our things that will need to be replaced.

We have two political parties that are the exact same.

We still drive automobiles that run off of explosions 4 feet in front of us. How ancient is that? So in the last 150 years we have found a way to instantly communicate with each other using 1s and 0s traveling through the air, but we still need to have simultaneous explosions to propel our vehicles? Politician's and friends make money off of oil and car companies' lobbyist. You do understand this right? We could be traveling at 150 mph, with virtually no accidents, and 0 emissions, if the decisions makers wanted. (I'll save this idea for another post).

We have no cure for the COMMON cold.

Our leaders and leadees should do what's best for the whole, at all times.

Please next time around vote for anyone who is not Republican or Democratic. Let's see something different. Let's see some brains, instead of greedy and selfish puppetry.

Don't wake me from my dream!

Here's a shocker

This was taken from Reuters on 12/27:

"Auto racing (which includes NASCAR) is most popular among those with a
high school education or less (19%) and Baby Boomers (15%), while it fares
worst among those with a post graduate degree (2%)"

What a shocker! Can you believe uneducated people like nascar, and educated people don't!....wow.

Here is one of my favorite posts so far.

Odds of relationship failure.

Its no secret, I am a cynic and skeptic. Its not the popular route, but its the one I have not been able to avoid.

As always I am intersted in some girl, and as always I am looking for any reason not to be. I am struggling mightily, but I am a rational person. Any rational person can make up excuses, so I'll use math as my excuse.

I think that 4% of the girls in the midwest are attractive.
I think 10% of people i meet have good personalities.

So, ignoring compatability (which we always do when we think these things out!) there is a .4% chance that a girl I meet is long term datable.

So if we factor in compatability than there is a (.4% X .4%) = .0016% chance that two people are attracted to each other both physically and on a personality level.

So for every 1,000,000 girls I meet, 16 have long term dating potential and compatability. Your odds may be higher or egad! lower depending on your standards (the 4% physical attraction odds and/or 10% personality attraction odds may be higher or lower for you).

Let's take that one step further. The divorce rate is 50%ish. We're going to ignore the small percentage of people that date for a very long time without getting married. That means for every 1,000,000 marriages, only 500,000 last. But from above only 16 should last. So out of 1,000,000 people, 499,984 people are with someone just to avoid being alone....and another 500,000 get divorced.

The point in any relationship is to make the other person happier than they would be if they were not in that relationship. It's hard to find the right person, and I refuse to be in a bad relationship. I will never be one of those 99.999% of couples that is "stuck"....I'd rather be alone, or divorced.

After typing all the above out, I find that I still haven't talked myself out of pursuing said girl. Now I just know the specific odds it won't work out...hahaha.

Have a great 3 day weekend everyone, regardless of your religion, or lack there of!...and I emphasize the latter!

Google has inflated Earnings!

Google has inflated earnings, not in an accounting scam kind of way, but in a nostalgia kind of way.

Google is hot right now...their stock remains hot, their earnings continue to beat estimates. As long as their earnings come in stronger than expected they will keep having their stock balloon up, perhaps to the four digit stratosphere.

But there are other angles to consider. I would consider shorting Google...that is I would short google if I were a speculator, which I've already established that I need certainity and not guesses to make investments.

WHAT?!?! DID SOMEONE SAY THE WOULD SHORT GOOGLE? DID SOMEONE WHO CLAIMS TO BE IN LOVE WITH GOOGLE SAY THAT HE WOULD SHORT THEIR STOCK?

yes. I came up with this theory that google has high earnings because everyone is trying them out. Everyone and their mother are trying out adsense (which is how google makes money), but there is no hard evidence to support that clicking on the ad above this post actually consistently generates cash for anyone other than me and google. So people are probably paying too much for the banner ad leads. Hell if you click on the above ad, I might make as much as 2 bucks. But you probably didn't buy anything. Do you see the disconnect of value here. People are paying for leads to sites that may not result into the conversion of cash purchases.

You can equate it to Ty. Everyone was buying Beanie Babies a few years ago (which started ebaY!) for no other reason than everyone was talking about beanie babies. Did that mean Ty would hang around and dominate the stuffed animal world? Hell no...it just meant that the media was doing advertising on behalf of Ty. As long as Beanie Babies were in the spotlight, people would pay a few hundred bucks for them. Similiarly everyone is paying for adsense ads which increases google's earnings, which increases google stock price. Its a terribly vicious cycle.

Google is still a toddler. They are not even 10 years old. Never mind Microsoft being a more formidable competitor, I am now afraid of google competing with nostalgia. I've said that all along about their stock price, but stock price is driven over time by a companies earnings....and people may be giving Google very high earnings for no other reason than to try it out. Think of it like this: "People are paying for adsense ads because they think that if this many people are talking about google, than it must be good." The same logic can be applied to Britney Spears.

Don't believe me? My sister told me that the company she is working for tried adsense and were disappointed by the results. Just wait until 1 million other advertisers agree. As long as click throughs turn into cash, google will be fine. But do click throughs turn into as much cash as we've seen out of google over the last few years? If so...fear Microsoft and Yahoo and Ebay and Amazon chasing Google's marketshare.

If I gambled, I would short google with a 12-24 time horizon.

Eminem...the greatest living poet looks back at his career.

If you sit and listened to the words I've been twisting, it can't take you a year to hear, that my jams mirror the tears I tried not to cry, the tears I've dried in my eyes, as you've lied, and denied, and told me that my story is better told by lives other than mine. What would you do, (ha!), what could you do, if you were put in my shoes, with this tortured past, still spinning my future's path using this fast math of lexical flash, while you trip trying to solve this mystery of me, but you don't see that you be drowning in your own envy, and pool of hypocrisy. Blinded by your own insecurity. "Oh, woe is me." (said sarcastically).

Then I put a pen to this pad, go at it again, as I add a verse of discourse that I spit so quick, in your head it hurts, and you resort to getting wheezy and dizzy just trying to keep wit me. I know you see it as being more easy to call me sleezy than understand the genius that be me. (fo sheezey!). But I win this war of rage that's been waged and I've fought with the cds that your children (our future!) have bought.

That's why I keep Shake-spearin you with these rhymes,
While you keep wasting your time, saying it’s a crime,
Accuse me of searing these' kids minds,
But I don't do it for the biz, can't help that I'm a wiz.
-erd.
With words.

You don't call me a Poe. You don't know me at all. My words are my walls, they prop me from my falls. Stand on them, and you may see what I've saw, after you raise up your dropped jaw, I'll stand tall, as you call me the greatest living poet, who's risked it all, and risen above those who didn't know it, even though I've steady done shown it. Times on my side. Words have lives, even after their poet's have died.

Dickens makes some points......

I very rarely (I don't think I have) moved a comments conversation into front page material, but this was good stuff, and there are alot of thought provokers here. Don't be afraid to leave me comments. I read them, and I hope my readers read the comments as well.


Dickens said...
Some people are into short term goals and don’t really care much about the company’s attributes, they just know that at this point in time a certain stock is doing well and is likely to go up, and they just ride the wave before it crashes (i.e. some daily wallstreet traders). On the other hand you have some like yourself who are into long term investment goals and base their investments on company culture, products, and financial statements which on the cover and more times than not is less riskier than the other. However, short term investing is just a different style. There is plenty of money in the “Googles” this day and age and the short term investments in general. Sure Microsoft is as safe and steady as ever but Google is this exciting company that is currently the darling of WallStreet. If you had the money why wouldn't you invest in Google and then cash out after you’ve made some money, seems like an easy win to me? You know they are only going to keep going up until they receive some bad publicity or are presented with significant legal issues. I'm not an expert but I don't see either happening in the foreseeable future. I wouldn't call buying Google or any of the other tech stock other than Microsoft playing the lottery but just a different style of investing. I am sure the smarter daily traders are doing a lot of trend analysis to score big on these stocks that surge instantaneously and then cash out. After all, investing money in the stock market is all about making money not what stocks you own. Last I checked we’re still spending that dirty ninj Benjammin Franklin and not Microsoft, Cendant, or Google shares. That being said I don’t have the time, knowledge, or resources to be a stock broker so I’ll just play it safe with the mutual funds and go the old reliable long term way. I’m just presenting a point that there are other styles of investing that are just as safe and more profitable as going the easy reliable Microsoft way.

Not that anyone asked but my opinion of Google and Microsoft but here you go… Google is way overpriced for what they are. They don’t have what I would consider a tangible product. They make the vast majority of their money off of internet ads. They have a lot of free services, information, and more information. So ya, as a Google user I think they are a cool cutting edge IT company but as a person with business insight don’t think they are the next coming of Microsoft. In fact I think they will need to justify their stock price sometime. We all know Google will need to grow up because it can’t sell internet ads the rest of its life. Microsoft offers a tangible product that brings in big time cash. Microsoft runs the corporate world. The majority of IT shops use Microsoft for the majority of their processes. Microsoft is highly available, already has their clamps on corporate America, too many people are use to Microsoft and are not likely to switch, they provide support and is held accountable (in the corporate world at least), and are surprisingly reliable this day and age. They are the hammer and we are the nails. But where are the stocks? One’s stock is a rock star and one is an old grandpa driving on the highway. One is making money for people in the stock market currently and one is not. So I don’t think it’s crazy for anyone to jump on the Google bandwagon, no. Google is skrillin like Nelly is grillin.

-Dickens

**************************

Greggie says: I have the money, and I won't invest in Google, because they are not the best. I passed on buying them at 85, and I'll pass at buying them at 800. I try to buy the best, the monopolies and oligoplies. Google will continue to make money off of ads (note I didn't say internet ads!). Google will be on your cell phone, on your fridge, in your grocery store, in your library, everywhere. I envision them being the first stage in a matrix type world. They are the very first signs of successful artificial intelligence made mainstream. Their system works because it learns.

But the fact of the matter is, what if the bad news comes tomorrow, then the bubble bursts and then you're poor

Google's stock is being bought because its a media darling, not because of the finanicals of the company....its late 90s tech bubble all over again. Microsoft could buy them if they wanted. They have ridiculous amounts of cash. (Bill's charity alone has more cash than GOOGLE, and probably more cash flows) Microsoft is King here. Microsoft will earn its investors more money over the long haul, even though google has returned more the last year.

Its a game of percentanges. Which is going to happen first: Google going to 900, or Microsoft going to 50. Both scenarios would be doubling their respective stocks.

Here's a hint: MSFT has a new OS rolling out next year (their money maker!!!!), their copycat version of google will roll out (and take market share from google), XBOX 360 will be pushed, Halo 2 rolled out (which MSFT owns), a newer version of Office, an iTunes copycat, two differenet LIVE suites to further dent Google's market share (live.com is one of them), MSFT is working with telephone companies on VOIP. MSFT is going to have a HUGE push in 2006 and 2007...probably their biggest pish to date....I don't feel that's reflected in their stock price because 1) people are afraid to invest, 2) people are overestimating GOOG, 3) people are underestimating King Softie.

I think MSFT is a bigger homerun than GOOG, with much less risk....and my money is where my mouth is. I own MSFT.

-Greggie

Looking for the next Microsoft?

Google has gotten very popular with investors lately. Investors are continually trying to find the next Microsoft. Well I'm here to help you, my readers, find the next Microsoft.

It's Microsoft.

Microsoft's only real competition is the Government and themselves.

But what about Linux? Red Hat and their stock seem to be mentioned every few years as a threat to Microsoft. But it shouldn't be. Red Hat makes Microsoft more valuable, not less. Linux helps Microsoft. Think I'm wrong? Remember that Microsoft's only real competition is the Government and themselves. If monopoly laws did not exist, than Microsoft would simply use some of their $50 Billion in cash equivalents to buy Red Hat, who has a market cap of only $4.5B, and assets of $1.1 Billion. Microsoft's operations brought in $16 Billion in cash last year. They bring in more cash in a qaurter than their "Operating System Competition" is worth!

But what about Apple? Apple has a market cap of $60 Billion, and assets of $11B. Microsoft could buy them too with money in the bank! Why do investor's not understand this? Apple gives microsoft minimal competition, thus keeping governments off Microsoft's back.

But what about Google? Microsoft had $16 Billion in CASH from operations. That compares with Google only having $4 Billion in sales. MSFT made 4x as much cash as Google had total sales!!!!! Yahoo only had $3.5 in sales. SALES not Cash!!!

Microsoft has cash Cash is King.

Hell, MSFT just last year gave $30 Billion in cash to their shareholders in the form of a special dividend. They have more cash than they know what to do with. Do you think Google, apple, Red Hat, etc. have this cash problem? Don't you always think "man if I only had some more cash, I could do this or that"...well Microsoft does have the cash that the other companies wish they had.

But keep buying Google stock, keep thinking Linux competes, or that apple competes. I'm buying the best of breed, while you keep hunting for the lottery.

All the while, Microsoft will keep being the next Microsoft....while you keep searching for the next Microsoft.

Cash is King. Microsoft has cash. Microsoft is King.

Shuffle up and deal.

I was forced to make a tough decision with my money.

If you ever get me talking about stocks, you know I'm going to quickly mention Cendant, Stericycle, PetSmart, Microsoft, and a few others.

So this morning as I was reading the news I saw that Cendant dropped 10%. So naturally I wanted to know why people were selling. So I read Cendant's news. They warned that they would be on the low end of estimates on earnings. I thought and thought and thought about that. Than I decided, I am fine with that. They are largely a travel company, and people just haven't been traveling as much (I am assuming) since gas prices shot up. They alluded to struggling with overseas travel, and they fired the head of that division. So should the stock retreat 10% because they are on the low end of estimates? I don't think so. I also looked at their financial statements to see if I could find anything I didn't like. I found that last year they had nearly $5Billion in cash flow from operations, and their market cap as of today was $16B. Thats when I knew I had to buy more.

But I don't (ever) have any cash. I had to look at all of my investments and see which one I thought had the weakest prospects for appreciating. This was very hard. I like everything I own, otherwise I wouldn't own it. I think all of my cash is wisely invested right now. But I had to buy Opportunity. I had to buy Cendant. So I sold my shares of Stericycle. I didn't want to. I bought it at 45 nine months ago, and sold it at 62+...(thanks Hadz!). It's performed well for me, and I think it's still got room to go up, perhaps to 70-80 in 2006...for another 10-20% return. But I think Cendant will be between 25-30 in the next 24 months...(compared to it being at 16.5 today)...for nearly a 100% return. I had to sacrifice a great company, to get a better opportunity.

Was it the right decision? I won't know for a few years.

Any thoughts?

A pie is a pie, any way you slice it.

Quick quiz:

Let's say there is a company called Greggie. Is it worth more at $5 or $10 or $500?

The answer to the above (before any other analysis) depends on how many shares there are. If there are 10,000 shares when the stock is priced at $5 the value is $50,000. If there are 100 shares when it is priced at $500 it is also worth $50,000.

I have heard and overheard many times people say: "this stock is only 5 dollars, what a deal" or "this stock is worth 150, its too expensive." (oddly I have heard this about Sirius several times already).

It's just a simple math discussion.

Along this same math...who cares if a stock splits!? Great I have twice as many shares and the stock cut in half. Guess what I just lost money because the company how to pay to split. But they split stocks for psychological reasons. They split their company's stock because unsophisticated investors think that $50 x 10 shares is cheaper than $25 x 20 shares.

The problem is these people should not buy stocks. Never invest in something you don't understand. By saying the above, you are showing non arm chair investors that you just don't get it....and there's nothing wrong with that....as long as you don't invest!

Furthermore, if you are thinking, well Greggie, I only have $500 to invest in Sirius (or whatever) so it really DOES make a difference to me if the company has enough shares to keep the price below $500.

My answer: Before you buy any investment, you need to consider the administrative cost. If you go the cheap route and trade online, you're going to pay about $20 in commissions. (10 to buy and 10 when you sell). So you need a return of 4% just to break even. The market historically returns an average of 8%, so you'd need 12% return just to "tie" the market!....given that few experts beat the market, it quickly becomes a bad idea....you're better off playing roulette.

Don't lose money!....make money. Be smarter than those losing money.

Bitterness.

Some people think I'm bitter, but the following quote sums it up best:

"People who have high expectations of themselves, tend to have high expectations of others"

I'm not bitter, I just expect more out of people than they give...so I'm often let down.

I'm not bitter, I'm hungry.

American as all GET OUT.

I saw an American Furniture Store car driving today. It had "American Furniture" painted on it like a billboard...made no secret that it was for "American Furniture."

It was a Honda Element.

Nothing says "American" like a good old Japanese hybrid!