It is too easy to mistake chance for talent.

I like buying stocks. I have never lost money on a stock, and I have an 86% return over the last 6 years vs a loss of 20% for the S&P and a loss of 6% for the Wilshire 5000 over the same time period.

I have solidly done what most professionals haven't. I have beaten the market over time. Needless to say it isn't even close.

But how much of that is luck. I'm sure most of it.

I wanted to buy charter at 15. They are now at $1.28. I wanted to buy AIG. They were in the high 60s, now they are at 50, and announcing accounting problems. I bought Iomega thinking they were going to revolutionize computers. I doubled my money and sold because I was unemployed. I did not want to sell, and if I hadn't sold I would have lost my money. I wanted to buy Netzero. I naively thought they were going to change the internet landscape. They don't even trade anymore...they got bought out by the company that owns Juno (remember Juno!?)

So where am I going with all of this? I am driven by a fear that someone is going to discover that I am lucky. I went to grad school and I'm taking the CFA charter. Why? Because I want to learn. I'm scared that I am just lucky. I could have easily lost my ass if I had done any of the above trades. Instead I picked all solid winners. What kept me from buying the losers? Why did I not buy Charter or AIG. I thought they were no-brainers.

Is it luck or is it skill? I'm afraid of the answer.